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Infect Dis Health ; 25(4): 242-244, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-382032

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand governments both initiated strict social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in late March. It remains difficult to quantify the impact this had in reducing the spread of the virus. METHODS: Bayesian structural time series model provide a model to quantify the scenario in which these government-level interventions were not placed. Our models predict these strict social distancing measures caused a 79% and 61% reduction in the daily cases of COVID-19 across Australia and New Zealand respectively. CONCLUSION: This provides both evidence and impetus for governments considering similar measures in response to COVID-19 and other pandemics.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Government , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Australia/epidemiology , Bayes Theorem , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Communicable Disease Control/standards , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Health Education , Humans , New Zealand/epidemiology , Personal Protective Equipment , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Psychological Distance , SARS-CoV-2
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